Climate
change impacts on China will depend on overall levels of global warming. Global
temperature increase so far is approx 0.75 degrees C (Met Office 2012). Dangerous levels of climate change have been
variously defined as over 1.5 degrees C (AOSIS and LDCs 2009), or over 2.0 degrees C
(UNFCCC 2011). International leaders
have committed to keeping warming below 2.0 degrees C and to consider a goal
to keep warming below 1.5 degrees C (UNFCCC 2011). But we are currently well off target to reach
these goals. Assessments of current
policy settings project temperature increases from 3.5 degrees C (Höhne et
al 2011) to 6 degrees C (IEA 2012). Betts
(2011) estimates that a global temperature increase of 4 degrees C reached during the
2070s, is consistent with current emission trajectories.
The
level of climate impacts on China will depend on whether countries meet
their existing policy commitments and, importantly, on whether policy
commitments to reduce emissions are strengthened enough to keep warming within
a range that is possible to adapt to.
Climate
change impacts on China: Water & Food
On
a per capita basis China already has relatively poor water resources and
agricultural land. China ranks 121 of
150 countries for per capita water availability (Shaojun 2011, p85). China has 7% of the world’s arable land
available to feed 22% of the world’s population (Paio S et al 2010) and half of
the country’s land area is arid or semiarid (NIC 2009).
The problem
of water shortage in China did not become evident until the 1970s. Previously (in the 1950s and 60s) the problem
of floods in China was more serious than that of droughts. In the 1980s persistent drought, rapid urban
development and urban population increase combined to push water demand in many
areas above the limited, and in some cases declining, groundwater
capacity. In response many cities began
to tap into the agricultural water supply.
This then pushed the agriculture sector to increasingly utilise
underground sources, resulting in precipitous drops in water tables, and ground
subsidence. (Shaojun in Keeley and Yisheng
2011, p85 & 86)
Recent
water scarcity in China has led to a wide range of ecological and agricultural problems,
and has a negative impact on cities and industry. Water shortages exist in 400 of the country’s
668 cities, and conditions are dire in 200 of these. On average the annual industrial water
deficit is 600 million m3, which accounts for the loss of RMB 230
billion (just under US$ 35 billion) worth of industrial output. (Shaojun in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p85)
The
Economist (2010b) estimates that water pollution and scarcity are already
responsible for reducing China’s GDP by 2.3%.
Xiaomin (2011) conservatively estimates water pollution alone cost the
Chinese economy RMB 286.28 billion / US$ 42.5 billion in 2004 – or roughly 1.6%
of GDP.
Shaojun
(in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p86) attributes the recent escalation in water
stress to two factors. First economic
growth, population increase and a rising standard of living caused the national
volume of water withdrawal and consumption to grow from 103 billion to 590
billion m3 between 1949 and 2008.
Second climate change has resulted in precipitation and temperature in
the last 20 years becoming increasingly uneven between the northern and the
southern parts of China, with the former experiencing more frequent droughts
and the latter more frequent floods.
source: Xinhua
As an example, in 2011 much of China
was in drought including the Yellow River and Huaihe River basin which
experienced the most serious autumn–winter drought in the past 41 years. The middle and low reaches of Yangtze River
basin experienced the most serious winter–spring drought in the last 60 years,
followed by an abrupt transition from drought to flooding in June. Southwestern China experienced the most
serious summer–autumn drought in the past 60 years. The autumn saw regional
flooding across the Huaxi region (in midwestern China) and Huanghuai regions
(in northern China) and heavy rainfall caused water logging and inundation in
big cities such as Beijing. (Zhang 2012)
Climate
change modelling indicates that droughts and dryness will increase even further
– especially in already-dry areas. And
that increased precipitation and flooding is also expected as storms, including
monsoons and typhoons, intensify (Dai A 2010; NIC 2009) and as landscapes
affected by drought are less able to absorb water.
It
is projected that by the time the Chinese population reaches 1.6 billion
(currently 1.3 billion), China will be facing serious water shortage problems.
(Shaojun in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p85).
The
Chinese Government have recognised this climate vulnerability and are taking
actions to increase resilience to
climate change. It is undertaking a
mammoth engineering project in the South-North Water Project (NIC
2009; The Economist 2010b). At $62
billion this project will divert 44.8 billion cubic metres of water per year
from the Yangtze River in southern China to the Yellow River Basin in northern
China, along the way displacing hundreds of thousands of people. However recent droughts in southern China
make questionable the assumption that this much water transfer is possible, and
water pollution may render the water unfit to drink. (International Rivers
2012) There is also a concern that this ‘engineering
fix’ may simply perpetuate dependency on water from outside sources and act as
a disincentive for recipient cities to learn to live within their means (Shaojun
2011, p93).
source: New York Times (in International Rivers 2012)
China
is also implementing programs to increase water efficiency within farms (The
Economist 2010a, Shaojun 2011 p88) and within industry (Shaojun p88) but it is
hard to see how these efforts will be sufficient to fully counteract impacts at
even moderate levels of climate change – let along the 3.5 to 6 degrees projected
with current policy settings.
Recently China turned from being a net exporter
to a net importer of food (World Bank 2008).
The US National Intelligence Council (2009) estimates that China’s agriculture output could be reduced 5-10% by 2030
due to climate change impacts.
China’s population is expected to grow at approximately 0.5% per year
(World Bank in Google Public Docs, 2012).
In the context of growing global population and tightening global food
production, it seems likely that China will have to divert resources away from
economic development into paying a higher price for food.
This forthcoming water and food crisis could impact
China’s social, economic, and political stability to a great extent. Conflicts about water rights in the
drought regions of northern China and farmers forced off their lands due to
increased drought and the rising price of food may lead to social unrest. (NIC 2009)
Climate
change impacts on China: Extreme events
China’s
coastal regions, the engine of China’s economic achievement, are flat and low
and highly vulnerable to storm, flood, and sea-level rise expected with climate
change. In recent years the increasing
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (floods, droughts, storms) has threatened economic development. Extreme weather events have caused
direct economic losses of $25 to 37.5 billion in China per year. (NIC 2009) This is very roughly equivalent to China’s military
budget or four times China’s social welfare budget including pensions.
Air
pollution affects on China
China
has the most polluted cities in the world (see the graph below). Burning coal, a major contributor to climate
change, is the single largest source of airborne pollution in China (Yushi
2010, p5). 300,000 people in China die
prematurely from air pollution annually (Economy 2004, p 85). In the most polluted cities, when children
breathe, it is the equivalent of smoking 2 packs of cigarettes per day (Economy
2004, p 85). The economic cost of this
pollution is substantial, the World Bank (2007) estimates that the burden of
premature mortality and morbidity associated with air pollution was 1.16% -
3.8% of GDP in 2003. Roughly 1-2 times
China’s military budget or 3-9 times China’s social welfare and pensions budget.
Source: World Bank, 2007
Climate/environment
link to civil unrest
Economy
(2004 pp221-256) draws parallels with other autocratic societies, including in
Eastern Europe, where the environment was used as a basis for social unrest and
notes that damage to public health, which is related to climate change
pollution, is one of the chief sources of environmental protests in China. Economy believes that it is no coincidence that
the number of large-scale protests tripled in the period 1998 to 2000 to
170,000 (Economy 2004 p83).
An
additional source of social unrest could come from water shortages (NIC 2009)
and food shortages which could result in further and escalating civil
unrest. The Arab Spring can be seen as
a precedent for this, where high food prices contributed to the circumstances
conducive for social uprising (Lagi 2011).
According
to the NIC (2009) social stability is China’s top governance priority. The Chinese Government are concerned about
the growing public unrest. Toy (2007)
reported that the World Bank reluctantly censored a report revealing that
750,000 people died prematurely every year in China from pollution-related
disease because Beijing officials
feared it would provoke "social unrest". Concern about social unrest may have led the
Chinese Government to subsidise food and energy prices, which otherwise would
have increased substantially, in 2010 (Brown 2010).
Will
climate change constrain China’s development?
Climate change will have a substantial impact on
China’s ecology, its economy and on Chinese people. Already a country with relatively low water
resources and small allocation of arable land, it may be approaching or have
reached the limits of its carrying capacity.
Climate change will put further strain on these constrained resources –
making both water and food shortages difficult to avoid. This will have two impacts – first
significant resources will need to be reallocated from economic development to
food and water security, and second it has the potential to significantly
impact social stability as people become increasingly unhappy with water and
food shortages and as the growth in living standards slows to deal with these
difficulties. The high levels of
pollution in China are likely to add to the dissatisfaction of the Chinese
population. Examples in Eastern Europe
and the Middle East have shown how environmental concerns have been a catalyst
and conduit for uprisings. For all of
these reasons the Chinese Government has a significant incentive for dealing
with climate change, by both encouraging global action to keep climate change
within moderate limits and by implementing smart adaptation strategies to live
within China’s shrinking ecological means.
This is the first in a two part series, a second essay
will consider whether emission reductions will act as a constraint on growth, the
interaction between international political considerations and China’s
emissions reductions and resulting impact on China’s development.
This post is a modified version of an assignment completed for China in the World Economy, at the University of Sydney. Lecturer Joseph Halevi.
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